⚠
Q2 2026 Alert: An Iran war-driven oil shock pushed gas to $4.48/gal in May — the 3rd-highest monthly average on record — sending CPIx to 43.2, its lowest reading since Q3 2024. The ceasefire is fragile. Renewed strikes reported in early July. The Q2 report is available now.
Quarterly Consumer Intelligence

The economic signal your competitors don't have.

The Consumer Pulse Index synthesizes 14 economic datasets into a single, rigorously scored read on U.S. consumer health — and a clear forward-looking outlook for the next 90 to 180 days.

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Consumer Pulse Index
Q2 2026 — Most Recent Reading
43.2
⚠ Strained — Approaching Lower Boundary
Financial Capacity
18 ▼
Spending Activity
64 ▼
Labor & Income
66 ▼
Consumer Outlook
36 ▼▼
Down from 47.1 in Q1 2026. Sharpest single-quarter drop since the 2022 rate-hike cycle. Driven by an exogenous geopolitical oil shock, not a domestic credit event.
20 years of historical data
14 source datasets
90–180 day forward outlook
Historical analog analysis
Published quarterly
$4.48
May Gas Peak — 3rd Highest Month on Record
The February 28 U.S.–Israel strike on Iran triggered a partial Strait of Hormuz closure. Gas surged from $2.98 in late February to $4.48 in May — a shock with no domestic analog in recent history.
44.8
UMich Sentiment May Low — At or Below Prior All-Time Low
Consumer confidence collapsed to 44.8 in May — at or below the series' prior all-time low of 50.0 set in June 2022. A partial recovery to 49.5 in June is fragile given renewed July hostilities.
4.2%
Unemployment — The Floor Held
Labor was the one pillar that didn't buckle. Unemployment actually improved to 4.2% from 4.3% in Q1 — confirming this quarter's deterioration was a price shock, not a demand collapse.
The Problem
"Most leaders are flying blind on the consumer — and they don't know it."

Q2 2026 illustrates exactly why this matters. Nominal spending held up — retail data looked fine. But savings hit a fresh cycle low, revolving credit hit a new all-time high, and consumer sentiment touched levels not seen since the 2022 energy shock. The headline number lied. CPIx didn't.

What you're working with today
  • Retail sales reports that told you spending was fine — while confidence was collapsing
  • Confidence surveys that measure feeling, not financial capacity to act on it
  • Wage data that ignores the inflation running hot on the back of a gas shock
  • No framework for separating an exogenous shock from a structural deterioration
  • Analysts who disagree and rarely tell you what to do about it
  • Your own gut — which is right until it isn't
What You Get

A complete consumer intelligence briefing, four times a year.

Each quarterly CPIx report is a rigorous, data-driven assessment of where the U.S. consumer stands today — and where they are headed. 21 pages. 10 original charts. Every number traced to its source.

01
The CPIx Score & Pillar Breakdown
A single composite score (0–100) built from five weighted pillars — Financial Capacity, Spending Activity, Labor & Income, Housing Pressure, and Consumer Outlook. Every number traces back to its source data.
02
Enhanced Consumer Outlook Pillar
Four components in one score: UMich Sentiment, OECD Consumer Confidence, the 10Y–2Y yield curve spread as a leading indicator, and initial jobless claims trend. Current psychology plus forward trajectory in a single number.
03
Historical Analog Matching
The past periods that most closely resemble today — identified through a five-variable distance model — with documented evidence of what consumers actually did in the quarters that followed.
04
90–180 Day Scenario Outlook
Three probability-weighted scenarios for where the consumer goes from here, with specific CPIx range projections and the precise conditions that would push the environment in each direction.
05
Operator Implications
Six specific, data-backed implications for pricing, inventory, staffing, and customer acquisition. Written for business leaders and executives — not economists.
06
Leading Indicator Watchlist
The six data points that matter most heading into the next quarter — with specific thresholds that signal which scenario is materializing. Your early warning system between reports.
By the numbers
20+
Years of historical dataCPIx back-calculated to 2006, covering the GFC, recovery, pandemic, and full rate cycle.
14
Source datasetsBLS, FRED, Census, University of Michigan, OECD, EIA, Federal Reserve, and more — all verified public sources.
5
Composite pillarsEach weighted by its demonstrated influence on consumer spending. Two pillars include genuine leading indicators.
4×
Per yearPublished within 30 days of each quarter's close. Delivered as a professionally designed PDF on publish date.
Q2 2026 Assessment — CPIx: 43.2
The consumer took a real hit — not from a domestic drift, but from an imported oil shock. Gas peaked at $4.48/gal in May. Sentiment touched its probable all-time low. Savings fell to 3.0%. Revolving credit hit a fresh record of $1.3495 trillion. Labor held. The shock is not fully behind us.
Q3–Q4 2026 Scenarios
Fragile stabilization
45%
De-escalation
25%
Renewed conflict
30%

Probabilities re-weighted from Q1 to reflect live geopolitical risk. Updated quarterly.

The Single Biggest Q3 Swing Factor
Whether the Iran ceasefire holds. Renewed U.S. strikes on Iran were reported in the first week of July. This has replaced gas prices themselves as the top-priority signal — it's the underlying driver of everything else.
Pricing

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  • 90–180 day scenario outlook
  • Operator implications
  • Leading indicator watchlist
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per year — all 4 quarterly reports
  • All four quarterly reports — every edition
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  • Quarter-over-quarter trend analysis
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  • Historical analog comparison
  • 90–180 day scenario outlook
  • Operator implications & watchlist
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If it doesn't make you think differently about your business, we'll refund it.

Every CPIx report comes with a 30-day satisfaction guarantee. If you read the report and don't find at least one insight that changes how you're thinking about the next quarter, contact us at info@consumerpulseindex.com within 30 days for a full refund. No questions asked.

Common Questions

What you're probably wondering.

Who is this report for?
Business owners, CEOs, CMOs, CFOs, and senior operators in consumer-facing industries who make pricing, inventory, staffing, or strategy decisions on a quarterly basis. If your revenue depends on consumer spending — directly or indirectly — this report is built for you.
How is CPIx different from the Consumer Confidence Index or retail sales reports?
Most public indicators are single-dimensional. CPIx integrates 14 datasets across five composite dimensions. Q2 2026 illustrates this clearly — retail sales data looked healthy while CPIx correctly identified the simultaneous collapse in savings, surge in credit, and sentiment deterioration underneath. The Consumer Outlook pillar alone combines UMich Sentiment, OECD Consumer Confidence, the yield curve spread, and initial jobless claims — giving you both current psychology and genuine leading-indicator signal in one score.
When does each report publish?
Within 30 days of each quarter's close. Q1 (January–March) publishes in late April. Q2 in late July. Q3 in late October. Q4 in late January. Annual subscribers receive each report by email on publish date, automatically.
What is the difference between the single report and the annual subscription?
The single report gives you the most recent complete quarterly analysis — everything in the report, delivered immediately, one time. The annual subscription delivers all four quarterly reports throughout the year at a significant discount ($297 versus $388 if purchased individually). Annual subscribers receive each new report automatically on publish date with no additional action required.
What format is the report delivered in?
A professionally designed PDF — approximately 21 pages including 10 original charts, five pillar deep dives, historical analog comparison, 90–180 day scenario analysis with CPIx range projections, six operator implications, and a leading indicator watchlist. Delivered immediately upon purchase via email download link.
Do you offer team or enterprise licensing?
Yes. For organizations that need access for multiple team members, board members, or want white-label or association member benefit arrangements, contact us directly at info@consumerpulseindex.com. Invoice billing is available for organizational purchases.
Is this investment or financial advice?
No. The Consumer Pulse Index is a strategic intelligence product provided for general informational and business planning purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. See the full disclaimer below.

The consumer is sending a signal. Are you reading it?

Four times a year, CPIx distills the noise into a clear, defensible read on where the consumer stands — and where they are heading. Q2 2026 is live now.

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Important Disclosures & Disclaimers

General Informational Purpose Only. The Consumer Pulse Index (CPIx) and all reports, scores, analyses, and content produced under the Consumer Pulse Index brand are provided for general informational and strategic planning purposes only. Nothing on this website or in any CPIx report constitutes investment advice, financial advice, legal advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security, asset, or financial instrument of any kind.

Not a Substitute for Professional Advice. Readers and subscribers should not rely solely on this report when making business, operational, financial, staffing, pricing, inventory, or investment decisions. All such decisions involve risks and variables beyond the scope of this report. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own independent research and analysis, and to consult qualified professional advisors — including financial, legal, and industry specialists — before acting on any information, score, scenario, or conclusion contained herein.

Limitation of Liability. Consumer Pulse Index, its founders, authors, analysts, and affiliates expressly disclaim any and all liability for losses, damages, costs, or adverse outcomes of any kind — direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, or otherwise — arising from or related to any business, operational, or financial decision made in reliance on this report or any information contained herein.

Data Sources & Accuracy. All data used in the construction of CPIx scores is sourced from publicly available government, academic, and institutional sources including the Federal Reserve (FRED), Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau, University of Michigan, OECD, Energy Information Administration, and Federal Reserve Board. While every reasonable effort is made to ensure accuracy, completeness, and timeliness, Consumer Pulse Index makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, regarding the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or fitness for any particular purpose of the information contained herein. Source data is subject to revision by issuing agencies, which may result in adjustments to historical CPIx values in subsequent reports.

Forward-Looking Statements. The 90–180 day scenarios and probability estimates presented in CPIx reports are illustrative analytical frameworks derived from historical pattern analysis. They are not actuarial forecasts, statistical predictions, or guarantees of future consumer conditions, economic outcomes, or business results. Past CPIx scores and historical consumer patterns are not indicative of future index readings or consumer behavior.

Not a Registered Adviser. Consumer Pulse Index is not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, financial institution, or regulated financial services entity, and is not regulated as such by any governmental authority.

Intellectual Property & Permitted Use. Each report is licensed for the use of the individual or organization that purchased it. Redistribution, reproduction, resale, or sharing of any CPIx report — in whole or in part — without the express written consent of Consumer Pulse Index is prohibited. Team and enterprise licensing is available for organizations requiring broader distribution rights. Contact info@consumerpulseindex.com for licensing inquiries.

Refund Policy. CPIx reports come with a 30-day satisfaction guarantee. Refund requests must be submitted to info@consumerpulseindex.com within 30 days of the original purchase date. Consumer Pulse Index reserves the right to limit or decline refund requests that appear to be made in bad faith or that involve repeated purchases and refund requests.